2013年11月16日星期六

VaR using historic simulation where nth rank is positive?

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I'm trying to find the VaR using historical stimulation where values are ranked from worst to best.

In my simulation I'm supposed to calcuate a 20% confidence interval. My simulation is over a 10 week period which I believe I should find the 10*(1-.2) = 8th worst rank of the 10. The problem I have is that the returns for the 8th rank is positive. Does this mean that my VaR is 0?


Here's a basic snapshot


Returns

Stock X Stock Y

8th rank 5% 8%


As you can see both returns are positive, so what would the VaR be?


(This is a class room example not based on real world)

VaR using historic simulation where nth rank is positive?

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